As uncertainty rises in the economic world, the political world, and nearly everywhere else, people running organizations are often tempted to calm the accompanying anxiety by being more directive. Usually this means placing more emphasis on more detailed “planning”, driven by the top of the house, to seemingly eliminate uncertainties. In fact, this is a bad strategy which increasingly undermines instead of supports great performance. And this problem is only going to get worse, possibly much worse, unless we do something… and soon.
Kotter International was founded with the vision of millions leading and billions benefitting. From the research we have done in the last decade and the countless clients we have worked with during this period, the most consistent learning is that a key to high performance is more leadership from more people. Having more employees looking out for and acting on threats and opportunities appears to be critical to success in our ever faster changing world.
Uncertainty has been trending up for at least the last two and a half decades. During this time we we have also seen periods of extreme uncertainty spikes: the 2008 financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic, and now the geopolitical and economic uncertainty driven by tariffs and other policy shifts. With high stock market volatility, a changing tariff landscape, and deep political polarization, people in most organizations are feeling anxious and even fearful of change. These real and perceived threats activate our powerful “survive” instincts and a resulting “fight or flight” response. And when we cannot resolve these threats by fighting or fleeing, it can lead to a freeze response. With employees feeling overwhelmed and unable to determine what course of action to take, organizations can find themselves in a state of paralysis—the last thing you want in an increasingly volatile, fast moving, and turbulent world.
The challenge for many senior executives today is to help their employees move from this state of frozen inaction to one of smart action that creates forward progress. We have seen senior executives tackle this challenge in two basic ways. Most often what we find is an attempt to provide more certainty. Senior leaders typically do so by adopting a more command and control style. And while this can help mitigate some of the anxiety in the workforce, it comes at a significant cost. People who have been told, essentially, to shut up and follow commands from above, often do just that. They stop thinking, looking, and leading— which is not what is needed in an ever faster changing environment. During moments of high uncertainty, it is more important than ever to engage the whole organization in identifying and acting on new information about changes in the context. But when senior leaders adopt a directive approach, they easily become blind to any emerging information that is inconsistent with the path they are directing people to take. And the more uncertain the environment, the less likely it is that top management will have all the answers or make all the right decisions. The more rapidly things are changing, the more you need employees at the edges of the organization to provide the kind of leadership that allows the agile responses required in a turbulent era.
What is increasingly clear from our most recent work with effective leaders is that their success does not come from having a crystal ball or, in general, a better ability to predict the future. Successful leadership from the top of organizations increasingly means mobilizing many people to work towards addressing real problems or taking advantage of real opportunities. Effective leaders do this by providing clarity around what is and is not known, articulating the real threats but also the opportunities that they see in any crisis, empowering all levels of the organization to experiment and take action in response to emerging information, and being willing to continuously question and challenge one’s own assumptions and decisions.
It can be tempting to think that a stormy sea calls for a strong, steady, and directive hand at the helm. The reality of an uncertain and disrupted world is that senior execs who can inspire confidence, clarity, commitment, and better leadership from many people will be far more likely to help their organizations not just survive but thrive.
We need more governments, companies, school systems, health systems, etc. that are thriving.
Many more. And the sooner the better.
